WesternChinasitevisit-demandremainsintactbutliquidityistighter

西行漫记：西安重庆成都房地产市场调查-需求保持旺盛流动性趋紧

WerecentlyvisitedthreecitiesinWesternChina:Xian,ChongqingandChengdu.Thesitevisitsincluderesidentialprojects,officesandretailmallsbythemajordeveloperswecover(Vanke,COLI,CRLand,Sunac,Longfor,JoyCity,CapitaLand).Belowareourkeytakeaways:

主要结论如下：

Demandintactunderpolicytightening;governmenttowootalentwithHukou

在政策紧缩下要求保持不变；政府用户口争夺人才ThelaunchofHPRsinXi’an/Chengduandmortgagetighteningonnon-localresidentsinChongqinghaveeffectivelycurbedinvestmentdemand.However,demandisintactevenunderthecurrentharshpolicy:inventoryhasdroppedto8.3,4.1and7.6monthsinXi’an,ChongqingandChengdu,respectively,basedonSoufundata.Thestrictpricecaponpre-salepermitshasalsolimitedsupply.Withstrongdemand,massmarketproductshavebeensellingwell?ourchecksshowlittleinventoryisleftfrompreviouslaunches.However,localgovernmentsinXi’anandChengduareeasingthecriteriatograntHukouasameanstoattracttalent,whichpartlymitigatestheHPRinthecities.Forexample,theXi’angovernmentallowstertiarygraduatesandprofessional/talentedworkersworkinginthecitytoapplyforlocalHukou,whileChengdugrantsHukoutotertiarygraduatesiftheycontinuetoworkinthecity.

Credittightening:10-15%interestpremiumforfirst-homemortgagesinChengduvs.5-10%inChongqingand0-5%inXi’an

信贷趋紧：成都首套房利率标准利率的1-1.5，重庆0.5-1,西安0-0.5

Accordingtosalesmanagers,bankshaveraisedtheeffectiveinterestrateonfirst-homemortgagesto1.0-1.15xthePBoCrate:Chengdutoa10-15%premium,Chongqinga5-10%premiumandXi’ana0-5%premium.Overall,mortgagecostiseffectivelyhigherthaninourprevioussitevisitsandourexpectation.However,themortgageapprovalperiodremainsdecentatslightlyoveronemonth,fasterthanwhatwesawinShanghaiinMay.Generally,salesmanagersbelievetighteningmeasureswillnotberemoveduntilend-.

Commercialproperties商业地产空置结棍:highvacanciesinoffice,changingtenantmixinmallshelpssalesreboundin1H17Incontrasttostrongdemandintheresidentialmarket,theofficemarkethasyettoseeimprovementduetooversupply.AccordingtoalocalSoufunexpert,officevacanciesinCBDsinChongqing/Chengduareat30-40%(similartothelastfewyears).Onlyafewofthebuildingsachieve80%occupancy(e.g.Wharf’sIFSinChengdu).Atmalls,landlordscontinuetoadjustthetenantmixtomitigatetheimpactofe-